Février 2026 : Découvrez une publication scientifique dans le cadre du PHC Maghreb

23 février 2026

Voici un article scientifique du projet 24MAG24 porté par SENECHAL Nadia (France), OUALLALI Abdessalam (Maroc), CHAKROUN-KHODJET EL KHIL Amel (Tunisie) sur le Développement d'une stratégie optimale de protection des côtes méditerranéennes contre l'élévation du niveau de la mer.

Assessing coastal exposure to Sea Level Rise: A coupled approach of qualitative modeling and spatial autocorrelation analysis

Coastal areas are essential for maintaining diverse ecosystems and providing key resources for human populations. However, Climate Change (CC) is a major driver of Sea Level Rise (SLR), manifesting through various impacts such as coastal erosion, flooding, and saline intrusion. This study uses the InVEST model to assess SLR exposure along 25 km of Morocco's Atlantic coastline in the Sale region. The model relies on a qualitative index based on bio-geophysical variables. Four scenarios were analyzed to evaluate the role of natural habitats in coastal protection and how SLR rates influence coastal exposure. The results indicate that with habitat protection, coastal exposure remains between low and moderate (50 %), while without protection, 50 % of the coastline faces high risk. The impact of SLR further amplifies this risk, with habitat loss resulting in 43.8 % of the coastline being classified as "very high risk" and 39.3 % as high risk. The southern coastline (Sidi Moussa) is more exposed than the northern part (Nation Beach), due to geomorphology, altitude, distance from the continental shelf, and habitat distribution. The exposure index showed notable spatial autocorrelation (Moran index = 0.7), indicating clustering of areas with similar exposure. The Moran index remained consistent across all scenarios, highlighting stable spatial dependency patterns. These findings help identify high risk districts along the Sale coastline, providing valuable support for coastal protection and sustainable development.